WSA says that China’s steel demand will grow 7.8% this year
On October 15, The World Iron and Steel Association released the short-term steel demand forecast results for 2019 and 2020.China’s steel demand is forecast to grow 7.8 percent to 900.1 million tons in 2019, while the rest of the world’s demand is expected to grow 0.2 percent to 874.9 million tons.
China’s steel demand is expected to grow 1.0 percent in 2020, with the rest of the world’s steel demand expected to grow 2.5 percent, driven by 4.1 percent growth in steel demand in emerging and developing economies (excluding China).
Global steel demand will grow 3.9 percent to 1.775 billion tons in 2019 and 1.7 percent to 1.8057 billion tons in 2020.
Al Remeithi, chairman of the market research committee of The World Iron and Steel Association, said: “our forecast results show that under the current severe situation, global steel demand will continue to grow faster than expected in 2019, mainly from China.Demand for steel in the rest of the world will slow in 2019 as economic uncertainty, trade tensions and geopolitics weigh on investment and trade.Manufacturing, particularly in cars, has fallen sharply in many countries, while construction has slowed but remains healthy.
Al Remeithi said the future global economic outlook remains highly uncertain and we expect global steel demand to grow by an additional 1.7% in 2020 driven by the growth of emerging and developing economies.If the current uncertainty continues, the forecast results will face significant downside risks.
In the developed economies, steel demand in the developed economies is expected to decline slightly by 0.1% in 2019 after growing by 1.2% in 2018. The consumption and construction industries continue to maintain positive growth momentum, while the manufacturing industry declines due to the deteriorating export and investment environment.Steel demand in developed economies is expected to grow 0.6 per cent in 2020 as a result of a technical rebound.
Steel demand growth in emerging economies (excluding China) is expected to slow to 0.4 per cent in 2019, mainly due to shrinking economic growth in Turkey, the Middle East, north Africa and Latin America.Infrastructure investment is expected to drive a rebound in steel demand growth to 4.1 percent in 2020, especially in Asia.
China’s steel demand will grow 7.8 per cent in 2019 in spite of a slowing economy that recorded its slowest GDP growth since 1992, mainly due to investment in real estate, The World Iron and Steel Association said.In the first seven months of 2019, China’s real estate market increased significantly compared with the same period in the past five years, followed by the unified standards for the design of structural reliability of buildings, which came into effect in April 2019. It is estimated that the implementation of the new standards will increase the steel consumption of new buildings by about 5.0%.
The World Iron and Steel Association is one of the largest and most active trade associations in the world.WSA members cover steel production enterprises (including 9 of the top 10 steel companies in the world), national and regional iron and steel industry associations and steel research institutions, and their crude steel output accounts for about 85% of the global crude steel output.