Lgmi: September PMI for steel circulation industry 50.2 peak season demand volume led to a rebound in the industry
Lange steel cloud business platform statistics released in September 2019 steel circulation industry PMI total index is 50.2, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous month.From the sub-index, the 10 sub-indexes that constitute the PMI of the steel circulation industry rose 5 points, 4 points fell 1 level, among which the sales volume, selling price, total order volume, purchase cost and delivery speed rose, while the inventory level, financing environment, trend judgment and purchase intention fell.
In September, the sales volume index and order index of iron and steel circulation enterprises were 53.1 and 52.8, respectively, up 9.4 and 9.2 percentage points from the previous month, respectively, returning to the expansion range, indicating that the market procurement demand returned to the peak season state, and the demand was significantly expanded, which was mainly reflected in the significant improvement of direct supply orders of terminal procurement.
The steel circulation enterprise inventory index was 46.8 in September, down 3.8 percent from the previous month.From a regional perspective, the inventory index in east China, northwest China and central and southern China dropped rapidly, 5.9, 5.8 and 5.4 percentage points, respectively.Samples from scale, annual turnover of more than 1 million tons of iron and steel enterprises circulation enterprises to reduce inventory increased significantly, the proportion of the annual sales in the 50-1 million tons, 10-500000 tons and 100000 tons of steel circulation enterprises to reduce inventory under a slight increase in the proportion of the market circulation of resources is more unobstructed, market circulation of all kinds of steel business inventories are decreased.From the absolute amount, as a result of the downstream demand volume, the current steel social inventory has been falling for 6 consecutive weeks, late destocking is still expected to continue.According to langer steel research center market monitoring, in September, 29 key cities in the country’s steel inventory decreased by nearly 1.35 million tons, down 12.1 percent.
According to the leading index, the purchasing intention index of the steel circulation industry in September was 48.1, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.Trend judgement index of 48.9, down 0.4% compared with last month, showed that sample companies cautious about future expected pessimistic, mainly due to enter the demand in October will be prosperous turned pale, and efforts to limit production of environmental protection may be reduced, the hong kong-listed will face of supply and demand gradually weakened the double pressure of the pressure, resulting in a sample of the late purchase intend to maintain a relatively cautious attitude.
In September, the steel market maintained the trend of shock rebound, with the continuous volume of downstream procurement, the market price continued to pull up, and the environmental protection production limit policy is increasingly strict, but because the demand release did not continue, the steel city continued to rebound strength is insufficient, the market once again entered the situation of shock adjustment.
Supply side: in the first 8 months, the average daily output of crude steel maintained at about 2.73 million tons, in which the average daily output of crude steel decreased in July, but the average daily output of crude steel rose again in August, reaching 2.815 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 2.4%, making the market supply pressure again.In September, due to nearly 70 years of National Day, the normal implementation of environmental protection production limit has been strengthened, and even near the end of the month, many places began to stop production limit in large proportion, and it is expected that the average daily output of crude steel in September will fall again.
Demand side: at present, the hong kong-listed season is still in demand of stage, the downstream demand heavy volume in September, but later in the month demand release did not last, and the downstream procurement is beginning to slow, making spot merchants for afternoon expected more cautious, at the same time, the recent policy for the real estate market increasingly severe, making real estate steel demand is likely to decline, but because of the often decided to increase investment in infrastructure, this comprehensive drop and give special bonds next year in advance of new lines, and urged all focus on major infrastructure, will make the construction steel demand picked up, appear even more than expected growth;The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry will still be in a differentiated situation, among which the demand for steel in the automobile industry will remain weak, the demand for steel in the machinery industry will maintain a steady increase, and the demand for steel in the household appliances and ship industry will maintain a steady trend of weakening.
In October, the boom of the iron and steel industry is in September will be down slightly, mainly downstream demand in September clearly peatlands, thereby giving impetus to the volatility of steel prices rebound in the market mentality had stable effect, but because of the market to limit production of environmental protection policies could be relaxed after the National Day, that makes the market for future supply side pressure, while the downstream demand in October will once again at the peak season to low season conversion stage, the market expected the downstream procurement will gradually weakening, this makes the October hong kong-listed will face the double pressure of supply recovery and weakening demand, overall hong kong-listed will be high after low moves before rendering.