Experts say the market
My steel: last week the domestic steel market price shock to run weak.Judging from the environmental protection policy in August, the supply situation in the first half of the month could hardly be significantly reduced. Even though the current market price is weak, from the perspective of inventory resources in the overall market, the inventory pressure faced by most varieties is not very great. As the market remains bearish, most of them maintain inventory reduction and avoid risks.In addition, although the blank price was reduced towards the end of the week, it was still at a relatively high point, and the support of spot cost was still obvious. However, the profit of steel enterprises was limited, and the willingness to voluntarily lower the guiding price was not strong, so it could be seen that there was not enough space for spot drop.Overall ,domestic steel market prices or maintain a weak shock run.
Steel house: the political bureau of the CPC central committee held a meeting on July 30 to plan economic work for the second half of the year.We reaffirmed the unchanged tone of proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policy and made more detailed plans for expanding domestic demand.Put forward effective response to economic and trade frictions, and do a good job in the “six stability” work;Stressed that housing is not speculation, the first real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy.At present, the external environment facing China’s economy is not optimistic. In particular, the us side plans to impose 10% tariffs on us $300 billion of Chinese goods imported to the us, which may lead to increased expectations of increased commodity price volatility.In the short-term market, the current market inventory continues to rise, the downstream demand is relatively depressed, the market transaction is generally pessimistic, the actual transaction has a small bargaining space;Import ore prices recently fell significantly, cost support weakened;Tangshan, Wuan and other areas will continue to limit production in August, but the intensity of the limit is weakened, more critical is whether the limit can really fall into place.Overall, it is expected that the domestic steel market prices will continue to run weak.
Lange: currently, a trade war with China to upgrade again, hit steel market unprepared, and steel market season has not yet out of the demand, the downstream demand remains weak, steel social inventory has been eight weeks recovery, steel mills will remain relatively strong positive output at the same time, the iron ore price adjustment makes the cost of the steel market support has subsided, but the overall cost remains high, steel market weak demand and strong cost situation continues, parts of Hebei normalized limit production of environmental protection at the same time, steel market support is expected to be at the bottom of compaction, but steel market vulnerable adjustment is still not out of the situation.Overall, this week steel market will show a shock down the situation. According to the weekly price prediction model data of lange steel cloud merchant platform,lately, the domestic steel market price will shock and fall, the long material market price will continue to fall, the profile market price will decline slightly, the plate market price shock is stronger, the tube market price will shock and fall.
Tang and song: although autumn is coming, the hot and sultry weather in a large area may ease, but the typhoon in the south may increase, and the heavy rain in the north will increase.Terminal steel demand is difficult to release, market demand will continue to be weak, market transactions or continue to significantly shrink, demand characteristics continue to slow season.Most previous limit production of blast furnace of TangShan areas weeks will be reopened, other parts of the long process of steel mills production basically stable, no a wide range of electric furnace steel mills production maintenance signs, utilization or just slightly lower, so the supply increased, steel market resources in the last week that because of market demand continued weak spot market is in a state of “for the strong to the weak”.According to the calculation of the reproduction of blast furnace in TangShan, the crude steel output increased by more than 100,000 tons/day compared with the middle of July, in which the strip steel, coil plate, billet and profile increased significantly, and the output of building materials increased by more than 20,000 to 30,000 tons/day. The total steel inventory may not increase significantly for the time being, and the stock accumulation may be accelerated in the later period.And the week rebar inventory will continue to rise, some areas, cities rebar inventory pressure continues to increase, the overall market supply and demand contradictions began to appear.In total steel inventory and major varieties of inventory are higher than the same period last year, August steel demand release is uncertain, especially TangShan production restrictions or relax the policy seriously affected the market confidence.However, considering the cost of steel prices fell significantly this week, southern electric furnace has entered the situation of loss, if the price continues to fall, the late production enthusiasm is not high, the market price is still supported.However, coke prices rise, high ore prices, scrap prices firm, long process steel enterprises into the range of small profits, most close to the loss of electric furnace steel enterprises, the market that the price is close to the bottom of the time node or to come.Iron ore supply, port volume may increase, port inventory or small fluctuations, coke market in the “weak demand strong” expectations, steel coke prices continue to game.