Please continue to pull up @national day before hot rolling market
As September draws to a close, the domestic hot rolling price has been suppressed again and the rise has been restrained.Business mentality slant empty, steel production week flat.Eleven will come, the environmental protection around the production limits one after another, for eleven weeks before the price may form a certain drive, but after the National Day market mentality is still short.By the end of the second half of the “gold nine” market tepid, downstream demand although there is a rise but did not have a clear improvement, settlement, the holiday is coming, pre-festival hot rolling market will be how to deduce, this paper combined with the industrial chain, to help you understand the current hot rolling market good or bad path.
One, close to the daqing Yin channel cut off
Last week, the futures price became weaker again and again, which conducted bearish sentiment to the hot rolled spot market. Under the suppression of the general decline of futures trend, the hot rolled spot market became light, which made the social inventory rise 1.8% again, and the price dropped 68 yuan in total.The opening of this week, tangshan area control tightened, 22-27 steel enterprises sintering machine equipment and port transport control;Thirteen cities in shandong province have also issued heavy pollution warnings.11 will come, the probability of introduction of environmental protection production limit increases, for the hot coil price to form a certain support.
According to data of cloud business of Lange steel on September 23, the average price of hot rolled coil in China was 3,705 yuan (ton price, same below), 33 yuan lower than the same period last week.
Figure 1 hot rolling leading city price
Cent area looks, at present north China hot coil area price is in 3930-3690 yuan, Shanghai area price is 3620-3720 yuan, guangzhou area price is in 3720-3820 yuan, manganese board adds 180-200 yuan.
North China market, because the prices have been falling, poor traders mentality, because in September is not optimistic, some major advance in advance will inventory down to ten thousand tons of inventory before now there are only 2-3000 tons, dealers said the market this year than last year, the downstream buyer’s enthusiasm is not high, only enter when futures continuous pull up procurement, steel mills in the arrival of the goods is normal, businesses have been shipped.10000-ton large shipment in 800 tons or so, 1000-ton merchant shipment of 200 tons or so, better than shipment average less than 200 tons.
East China hot rolling with the futures of the weak link, last week also fell significantly about 100 yuan, Shanghai, suzhou and hangzhou and other places of business mentality is low.It is reported that this week the lowest market price 3610 yuan clinched a deal general, 3630 yuan clinched a deal encountered resistance, shipment in 400-500 tons level.According to my network statistics, this week Shanghai hot rolled inventory of 329,800 tons, zhou huan up 3.38%, traders said that is still mainly to shipment, but the terminal is basically in the wait and see, this week by 11 good expectations, business attitude is positive.
South China market, the current price of lecong is 3730-3810 yuan, after two days of futures, the transaction is good, the shipment in 400-800 tons, it is reported that most traders think that the price before the festival still has room to rise, but the room to rise is limited, so it is still dominated by shipment.At present, the north-south gap is about 100-120 yuan.Affected by the strong operation of futures and environmental protection limited production and other favorable news, the mentality of merchants boosted, positive shipment.
Two, this week three steel set a new price
This week, a total of ning steel, lian steel (ten-day price), liu steel (irregular) three steel introduced a new price, which ning steel price significantly reduced 100 yuan, lian steel 50 yuan, liu steel price than the previous period flat.The steel mill maintains the cautious pessimistic forecast after the National Day.
Table 2 summary of steel price adjustment this week
Three, in September a total of two steel mill maintenance plan
By the end of September, two steel mills of shasteel and baotou steel have issued maintenance plans for hot rolling. It is worth mentioning that two rolling lines of baotou steel have been repaired in the last two months, 1780 maintenance to the end of the month, and the next 2150mm rolling line is repaired in October, which is expected to affect the supply of hot coil and provide more than 100,000 tons.In addition, shasteel entered maintenance on 13th. Recently, shasteel resources in the east China market received little, reducing the supply of 110,000 tons of hot rolling. However, shasteel is about to resume production this week, and the hot coil in the east China market is under the pressure of overloading.
Table 3 summary of steel mill maintenance in September
According to statistics of Lange steel network, by the end of September, the output of hot rolling steel mill was 3.35 million tons, down 2.33% on a weekly basis, and the inventory of steel mill was 980,000 tons, up 1.03% on a weekly basis.Social inventory, according to my network data, as of September 23, domestic hot coil inventory 2.2736 million tons, a week on a month-on-month increase of 1.79%, the month on a year-on-year decline of 3.17%.
Production at shagang and baotou steel mills fell this week due to limited deliveries during the Mid-Autumn festival holiday, while social and steel inventories rose slightly.After hitting a new high in hot-rolled production in the previous two weeks, production finally fell back this week.In addition, the market news that aftermarket tanggang molten iron has a inclination to hot rolling, hot rolling supply for aftermarket will cause pressure.
Investment in the first half of the year was mainly supported by real estate, and the low investment in the manufacturing sector caused concern. Therefore, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that investment in the manufacturing sector should be stabilized and real estate should not be used as a short-term stimulus to stimulate the economy.Therefore, there may be more money flowing into the manufacturing industry, in this case, the steel mills hot coil supply increase is a high probability event.
Figure 2 production and storage trend of hot rolling
Four, National Day production limit triggered futures surge
With the approach of National Day, tangshan, handan, shandong and other places environmental protection policy one after another, triggered the futures of the rising tide, up to the close of 24, RB2001, HC2001 contract closed at 3477 yuan and 3501 yuan, two days cumulative up 100 yuan, high running.At present, hot rolling fundamentals in a soft equilibrium state, the price of a large extent depends on the futures trend.On the technical surface, yesterday’s disk formation hope star, high price movement, but today’s two contract closing price than yesterday or narrow.RB2001 disk judgment of the current test decline trend line, tomorrow’s price may be weak, short – term support price 3453 yuan.
Figure 3 RB2001 disk diagram
To sum up, the domestic hot rolling price in the last two days in the case of futures pull up, the price slightly improved, traders increased the shipment.Near National Day, the market mentality improved, the environmental protection before the release of production restrictions continue to have higher expectations, but for the market after 11 is still not optimistic, after all, the current demand does not fully show the color of improvement.Futures weakened again today, there is a certain pressure in the short term, if there is no obvious positive situation to come out tomorrow, it is expected that the hot rolling price may be stable in the correction, but in 11 National Day news environmental high expectations, the degree of decline is limited.There are still bullish forecasts for the rest of the week.