Mysteel quick comment: long – lost iron ore trading limit can drive steel prices start to rise?
0n September first day , usher in a wave of big steel spot market prices, shagang down the price of building materials 160-250 yuan/ton, the rebar prices by 250 yuan/ton.Now the HRB400 Ф 16-25 mmrebar 3720 yuan/ton.On September 2th, steel rebar, plate screw and other building materials prices have also been reduced, including three rebar (ruler) by 100-120 yuan/ton.
But this afternoon in iron ore continued to power, the black series of varieties higher.Iron ore was up 5.97 percent at 630 at the close of trading.Rebar main reported 3407 points, up 2.68%;Hot volume main reported 3460, up 2.28%;Coke main to 1196, up 1.81%.
Looking back on July and August, the absolute price index of MyIpic imported ore dropped by 175.3 yuan/ton, and the absolute price index of Myspic rebar dropped by more than 400 yuan/ton, reaching a new low in two years.So does today’s rise mean the start of a rebound in prices for raw materials and materials?
Tang xiaolan, iron ore analyst of Mysteel, believes that steel mill inventory is at the lowest level in three years, and the policy of production restriction was implemented in Tangshan last weekend, which is basically the same as that in August. The intensity of production restriction is lower than expected, and some financial funds start to favor the short-term replenishing-inventory of steel mills and long iron ore.
However, the overall contradiction in the current market is not obvious, the terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the port inventory has accumulated for two weeks in a row, and it is expected that there is still a probability of accumulation, which may restrain the price rise.The market price of imported ore is expected to fluctuate this week.
For material, screw social inventory has been declining for three weeks.As of August 29, the inventory of rebars in 35 cities surveyed by Mysteel was 6,094,800 tons, down 3.5% week on week and up 39.13% year on year.The inventory in the rebar factory was 2.699 million tons, up 3.32% week on week and 49.03% year on year. The inventory was digested, but the overall rate was slow.
Wan chao, an analyst at Mysteel, said the general tone of the steel market for most of September was likely to be to resolve the early supply and demand conflicts.Recently, the supply side thread production week by week, year-on-year growth, the end of August low transaction volume, September demand may have improved.The blast furnace production enterprise spot profit may, the market loss is serious, meets the overcharge, reduces the risk mentality to be still heavy.At present, the fundamental contradictions are expected to ease, but remains to be seen.The speed to storage becomes the key to determine when the price stagely stabilizes.Prices are expected to continue to fall in September, high space limited.