Expert prediction of the market
VICE: last week domestic steel market price shock run.First of all, at present, the profit situation of production enterprises is relatively general, and the profit of some mixing and billowing enterprises is still poor. In addition, due to the fermentation of environmental limiting factors, it is difficult to improve the supply situation in the short term.On the other hand, the release of terminal demand in the near future is not optimistic, so most businesses concluded that it is difficult to improve the transaction in the short term, the operation to maintain loose shipment.And the current resource cost support is strong, spot deep space contraction, in the short term or will be narrow range adjustment.Overall forecast, this week (2019.8.26-8.30) domestic steel market prices or narrow shock run.
SHALLY: last week the domestic steel market price is mainly a small decline, the market transaction is still weak, the business operation is more cautious.From the recent domestic steel market, import ore prices continue to decline slightly, coke prices look lower steel mills increase, the cost of steel support weakened;Steel home website survey volume in addition to construction steel slightly increased, medium and thick plate and hot rolled coil are lower than last week, demand is still relatively weak.Favorable factors are also gradually increased, but the market is Wuan iron and steel coking strengthening emergency control notice, notification requirements, August 22 – August 31 Wuan 11 emergency shut down control measures iron and steel enterprise, the enterprise agglomeration and at all, except keep a normal production of blast furnace and other blast furnaces at all, plus announced previously parts of steel production, steel production capacity to play further restriction;2 it is national relevant part will be held on September 2, backward and dissolve excess capacity training supervisor check mobilization meeting, according to the ministry, the national development and reform commission and national energy bureau released on the backward and dissolve excess capacity work supervision inspection notice, check with a focus on the construction or confirmed since 2016 in sectors such as steel replacement implementation capacity, displacement capacity (equipment) exit as scheduled in 2018 and eliminate backward production capacity, etc.;Third, domestic steel market inventory for two consecutive weeks of small decline, business inventory pressure moderating.It is expected that this week (2019.8.26-8.30) domestic steel market prices will show a small shock movement.
Lange: at present, the prospect of a trade war with China remains unclear, but the central bank’s disguised form a cut and upgrade again more stringent environmental protection measures to limit production, makes the Steel Market-confidence restored, also makes the futures market presents the wide range of trends, while the downstream demand has been recovered, making steel social stock has been falling for two weeks, at the same time the production of steel has also fallen, makes the future supply of Steel Market less pressure, but at the moment, the downstream demand capacity is not obvious, Steel Market under powered to rise again.Overall, next week steel market will still show a steady decline in the situation.
According to the weekly price prediction model data of Lange steel cloud business platform, this week (August 26-august 30, 2019.19), the domestic steel market price will decline steadily, the long material market price will decline steadily, the profile market price will decline steadily, the plate market price will decline steadily, the tube market price will decline steadily.
WANG : last week, the end of heat began to subside and fall is coming.The demand for infrastructure construction, processing and manufacturing steel in north China should be released in a restorative manner, and the market transaction may pick up soon. The overall demand has entered a recovery and release period.The possible period of high cost, low selling price and continuous decline of profit of steel enterprises is basically over. Long process steel enterprises may maintain normal production status, while the amount of long process scrap increased significantly, becoming the main factor of reducing steel output.East China, south China and other key areas of electric furnace operating rate is difficult to improve or tend to stabilize, steel market resources supply continued to be relatively stable within a week.Market demand is at the end of the seasonal off-season, and the terminal demand may be released to some extent. Within a week, the total steel inventory continues to decrease slightly, and the decline of rebar inventory in some regions and cities increases, but the situation of high inventory of major varieties has not changed, and the pressure of high inventory has not been significantly reduced.The market in wait-and-see, looking forward to the mood of steel enterprises expected to reduce production, demand to start expectations into reality, so the future spot market may now shock trend strong market.
It is expected that this week (August 26-august 30, 2019.19), the price of building materials shock tends to be strong and small adjustment, the price between regions rise or fall to expand;Volume, with a small price shock adjustment.Billet price will rise concussion.Iron ore market prices will be volatile movement;Scrap market price will be more stable adjustment;Alloy prices will be stable in a small reduction;Coke price market to run weak.